The bubble to watch isn’t the stock market

dollar oilWe don’t worry about the stock market popping. What really keeps us up at night is the thought of the bond bubble bursting. For now it would seem that Treasuries have resumed their parabolic ascent. Deflation is good for the bond market. A stock crash is good for the bond market. A bond crash, however, wouldn’t be good for 99.9% of humanity. Given the breakneck pace at which US government debt is growing and our law-maker’s past willingness to take us to the edge of default, increasing bond volatility seems inevitable.

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